| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Mississippi State | 13-62 | 1314.7 | -4.9 | 1309.8 | 1.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | UAB | 20-26 | 1309.8 | +62.5 | 1372.3 | 21.1% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | SE Louisiana | 35-38 | 1372.3 | -23.4 | 1348.9 | 78.5% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | Florida Atlantic | 17-45 | 1348.9 | -42.1 | 1306.9 | 22.7% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | South Alabama | 35-52 | 1306.9 | +15.4 | 1322.3 | 13.5% |