| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | St. Francis (PA) | 29-0 | 1413.0 | +16.2 | 1429.2 | 94.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Alabama | 0-73 | 1429.2 | -163.4 | 1265.8 | 6.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | UTEP | 31-25 | 1271.2 | +55.3 | 1326.5 | 28.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 28-16 | 1326.5 | +32.4 | 1358.9 | 40.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Northwestern | 7-42 | 1358.9 | -39.2 | 1319.7 | 18.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 8-23 | 1319.7 | -21.9 | 1297.8 | 45.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Troy | 14-37 | 1297.8 | -14.1 | 1283.7 | 19.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 21-49 | 1283.7 | -30.2 | 1253.5 | 27.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 6-31 | 1253.5 | -8.4 | 1245.1 | 11.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | South Alabama | 14-26 | 1247.1 | -12.2 | 1234.9 | 24.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Texas State | 14-31 | 1234.9 | +7.9 | 1242.8 | 11.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Louisiana | 27-30 | 1242.8 | +15.5 | 1258.3 | 20.7% |